Race of the Day: Catterick 2:30 - Town House 25/1 (each-way) or Bilboa 12/1 (each-way)
Today's race of the day comes from Catterick at 2:30. It is a 5f sprint on good ground and is a very open race with opinion split by many tipsters. Many are recommending Guto, the 5/1 favourite, but in my opinion he's easily opposed.
As far as I'm concerned, Guto is up against it in this race. Not only is the ground very different (hasn't even gone close on good ground in recent memory), but...she has a 6lb penalty. However, that is not all. Kelly Harrison rode her to victory last time out, with her 5lb claim. In this race, despite it being an apprentice race, Guto has one of the few jockies that isn't claiming. So I make that an 11lb rise in the weights for Guto. For her to be the 11/4 favourite is slightly insane. Makes very little appeal to me and I would be surprised if she grabs a place.
I'd give
Sunley Sovereign more of a chance than
Guto, as she is down 2lb, plus a 3lb claim puts her only 1lb higher than when winning at Hamilton when 50/1. Obvious concerns about the ground though, as her only two decent performances in recent memory have come on really soft ground. I'm still not sure what to make of her. Very difficult to trust and is overlooked for that reason.
Town House threw up a shock result off an identical mark at Leicester in late June. Conditions very fairly similar to this race, however, at Yarmouth two starts ago, didn't find an awful lot off another similar mark and that might be a sign that she isn't quite at her best currently. She had the assitance of Hayley Turner in her last race and didn't find much more. However, can't completely rule her out at a decent price.
Whozart is winless from 13 at this distance. Does have every chance of reversing form with Guto though on ground that should suit a little better than the full on soft stuff. Not one to back with confidence though, so I'll overlook him again.
Northern Chorus's mark has been dropping in this company, but he doesn't seem to be getting any closer to bagging his first win in over two years. You never really do know which mark will allow a horse to spark into life, but in all likelihood should find a few too good.
Beaumont Bay looks extremely difficult to win with. He has been tried multiple times over 6-7f with no success, tried over hurdles where he failed miserably. Since return to the flat has performed credibly in some race, not so in others and now returns to 5f for the first time since a 2yo off a very low mark indeed. It's tempting to say there maybe more to come over the minimum distance, but...winless in 21 starts, cannot be fancied for me.
Bilboa has an excellent chance in my opinion. He's all over the place at times, but in his last race over half a furlong further, he wasn't beaten too far and if that was an ordinary 5f, he may have won...and today he drops well down the weights thanks to a 7lb claim. Must have a chance.
The old visor seemed to do the trick for
Jakeini last time out. Mark has dropped out to 51, which is fairly low for a horse who won a class 4 back in 2006 off 65. Add the 7lb claim and you have the leading contender for this race in my opinion. The ground is very different to the race at Ayr the other day though, so reservations on that, but must have a chance.
Age is beginning to catch up with
Strensail as proved by his mark being at it's lowest point in 5 years. One last swansong wouldn't be completely ridiculous in this company, but it's fairly unlikely.
Jun Fan has come close on many occasions at 5f, but winless from 27 on turf and just not running all that well currently suggests to me this won't be his day either.
It is far from out of the question for
Gilded Youth to get involved now finally put back into a sprint. Connections clearly have no idea what to do with him, trying him over 1m4f last time out, where he was absolutely trounced. He definitely stands more of a chance at 5f, but the massive deviation in distance might be fairly off putting for the horse. I do like the big priced ones, but not so much this time.
Can't really say I fancy
Obe One much. 3 wins from 86 isn't the most dashing strikerate and even though he might prefer a good straight 5f, there are likely a couple much better weighted currently.
Dark Champion needs to run a lot better if he is to figure. But the 7lb claim gives him the opportunity to do just that. Might need a bit of rain to top off the good ground though, as the firmer it gets, the more he will struggle. Winless from 42 starts on good/good to firm.
Spirit Of Coniston is up 4lb thanks to his comeback victory last time out. He's not a bad horse at all and should have a great chance if he can run the same way again.
Advice
Of the four I fancy - Spirit Of Coniston, Bilboa, Town House and Jakeini, I always find it worthwhile to back the two with the best prices. So I will be on Bilboa and Town House. Big money layers can't really go wrong with laying Guto, who is a pretty unworthy favourite.
Bilboa 12/1 1pt e/w
Town House 25/1 1pt e/w
Watch the race live at bet365.com and place your bet
