Betting on Transfers Explained

Open transfer markets offer football clubs the opportunity to sell, buy, loan out, and loan-in football players all over the world. Big name clubs like Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Manchester United all typically view for the top talents in the world, while given a chance to offload certain deadwood players who perhaps couldn't quite live up to expectations. Small clubs can cash in on a successful youth program, selling top young talents to the highest bidder at a premium price. Also, loans and free agents are a regularity, perhaps best seen recently in English Premier League side Everton's immensely successful loan-in of Romelu Lukaku from Chelsea FC in the 2013-2014 season, as the powerful striker helped lead the Toffees to a top-5 finish in the league table. But the open transfer market also enables football lovers, spectators, and enthusiasts alike a chance to cash in on their devoted efforts.

Transfer market betting allows bettors to take a risk on where a player may play his football at the end of the open market. With big money clubs like Real Madrid, Chelsea, Manchester City, and PSG all spending as if the sun won’t rise again, players are neglecting loyalty at an unprecedented rate and chasing the massive salaries that await. Bettors have a prime opportunity to cash in on this new trend, but in-depth knowledge of a team and its needs is a must. For example, Arsenal FC of the English Premier League desperately needed to add some attacking prowess this summer, and with knowledge that manager Arsene Wenger had been a longtime admirer of Barcelona’s Alexis Sanchez, a bettor could’ve cashed in on that transfer. Or, one wise to everything Bayern Munich would know that Mario Mandzukic had become an expendable asset following the signing of Robert Lewandowski. Potential suitors were everywhere, but Atletico Madrid were the ones who bit on the Croatian striker, as the sale of Diego Costa left them exposed up top. However, wild rumors persist everywhere, and that is why knowledge of a club and its players is essential to playing the chaotic transfer game. For example, bookies have placed Manchester United as favorites to sign Theo Walcott by the end of August, but an Arsenal fan knows that the speedy winger is a diehard Arsenal fan and won’t entertain the idea of an exit in the slightest, at least this summer that is.

Rules are typically pretty straightforward. For example, a bet on Alexis Sanchez to transfer to Arsenal would’ve yielded the bet’s winnings. If Sanchez went elsewhere to another club or simply stayed with his current club Barcelona, the bet would be lost. In the event he was loaned to Arsenal, the bet would be won unless stated otherwise by your betting site. However, if a player is bought and loaned to another club, the team that owns the player is the winner, not the team that receives the player on loan. If the player in question retires or enters into a managerial or coaching position, your bet is returned and is null and void. However, pre-contract agreements, whether verbal or official, will not count if the player remains at his current club when the transfer window closes. Your bet will be lost.

But it’s not only players who can be bet upon, but also managers and their career choices as well. Typically, betting sites offer the chance to bet on who will be the next manager of a club or country. To state a more recent example, when Sir Alex Ferguson retired from Manchester United, successful bettors would have placed money on David Moyes to succeed him. However, caretaker and interim managers will not count if they do not manage at least 10 competitive matches. On the other side of that coin, bettors can also bet on who will be the next manager to leave their post. If that manager in any shape or form is not controlling the team before the end of the final match of the season, your bet is won. However, if a manager has been replaced but sees out the remainder of the season as manager, your bet is lost.

There are numerous betting sites currently offering odds on many player and manager transfers. For example, Arturo Vidal’s presence at Juventus has been left in serious doubt following manager Antonio Conte’s voluntary departure. Manchester United are the current favorites for the Chilean midfielder’s signature, which can be found at extremely low odds of 1.05 at Betfair. However, Betfair are also offering tantalizing 17.00 odds for him to end up with Bayern Munich, who have indeed inquired about his availability after Toni Kroos’ departure seems all but wrapped up. Then again, Man U are set to go on a spending spree after their massive deal with Adidas, but a small wager on such great odds for Bayern Munich could pay mouthwatering dividends. Another highly-rumored star is PSG misfit Edinson Cavani, who was frustrated last term having to play second fiddle to striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Bookies think Cavani will stay with his current club, but his unrest and stated desire for English Premier League football could see the Uruguayan changing cities by summer’s end. It wouldn’t be surprising to see moneybags Manchester City jump all over him, which can be found at tempting 10.00 odds at Unibet. Also, Chelsea remain a big favorite due to their past history of spending big, with their odds sitting at 6.00 at Unibet. But a personal recommendation on a safer pick in this transfer window would be World Cup Golden Boot winner James Rodriguez to land in Real Madrid. Top odds for this selection can be found at 1.25 odds at Betfair. Other betting sites that offer transfer odds are Skybet, Paddypower, Betvictor, and William Hill.