Odds are based on statistics. At least that’s what bookmakers want you to think!
But bookmakers are interested in balancing out the markets to maximize their profit. To reach that, they adapt the odds based on public opinion.
You don’t believe us? Here’s an example:
On 7th March 2015, Hamburger SV hosted Borussia Dortmund in German Bundesliga.
Based on their last 25 matches the odds considering the statistical probability should have been:
win HSV – 2.26 (44,27 % probability)
draw – 6.88 (14,55 % probability)
win Dortmund – 2.43 (41,18 % probability)
However the best odds on the market for a Dortmund win were not higher than 1.57 while you got astonishing 4.70 on the draw and 7.50 on the HSV win.
The statistical probability for the double chance 1X was higher than 58 % and also the results of the most recent direct match ups supported the opinion that Dortmund would not win. Still the odds for that were awesome as the majority of people placed their bet on a Dortmund victory (the game ended 0:0 by the way).
Here’s where the LTP-Index comes into play:
We analyze results of the last 10 games of each team to find the most valuable betting tips on the bookies markets, taking into account the following parameters:
– performance on the 1X2 market
– home/away strengths
– goals scored/conceded
– handicaps won/lost
– recent form
– and some top secret parameters on top
In this formula the most recent matches are more important than older ones as well as matches against opponents that are comparable to the upcoming challenger get a higher value. Then the overall probability of the particular betting option based on both teams performances is set in correlation with the highest odds offered.
So we are very proud to present you the five bets with the highest value available for each and every game!
Please be aware that this will sometimes lead to suggestions that feature underdogs (as they usually have great odds) and we will provide further details on the index after the first test-phase when the final fine-tuning was finished.
Happy betting and good luck!
